Bulls vs the Bears

So its the Bulls vs the Bears again. For the bullish, these guys are buying commodities , gold, and oil related stocks. For the Bears, well, I think they are just sitting there and saying to themselves that 'We will watch and see how it reacts after all, the markets always come back within 2 weeks or so".

I will not be catching falling knives too soon as yet and it does not make sense to be holding a position over the weekend.

Chinese stocks are the most pricey currently trading in the above 40 PEs, with HK China shares following and one can expect further 'weakness' there with some selling expected on that area although, the wealth and liquidity of chinese funds cannot be discounted.

Are investors in self-denial of the fundamentals. Just think , higher oil prices = more pricey products. Cost of living has to go up as its now more expensive to transport supplies and goods now. Subprime problems in US mean loss of jobs and borrowers may have to find ways to pay off their housing loans, which means that they will have to cut their other expenditures and the continued announcement of job losses at banks on the mortgage departments will mean that there is a bunch of people out there looking for jobs. Its a definite slowdown expected next year .
Personally, I like a newsclip article on Wednesday with Gisele Bundchen saying that she will accept all currencies except the USD as payment for modelling jobs. It just says it but somehow, US /Fed in a Hobson's choice of just keeps cutting rates which means US$ will continue to remain weak

The bad news:
Oil recouped early losses to resume its march towards the US$100
The strengthening of the Yen again, may see some unwinding of carry trades, also perceived bad for Japanese stocks as it makes exports more expensive
Jitters have grown since Citigroup Inc said on Sunday that it needed to take an additional US$8 billion to US$11 billion in writedowns. Note that ML had just earlier reported a US$8.4billion loss writedown for 3Q07
General Motors Corp on an accounting adjustment, had a a record loss

A$ is in the spotline today

A$ again in the spotlight as RBA lift rates an additional 25bps (as expected) to 6.75% followed with hawkish commentary. The markets are not ruling out a further hike in December. A$ has firmed up some 100 bps today on back of the rate hike.

Weak USD, Strong Gold Price which is getting closer to US$900, Oil hits new high and local oil pumps here has raised their cost of petrol to the consumer yesterday. Markets around still continue to have a live of its own despite all the signs of cautiousness. Track the volatility of the Hang Seng Index and the high turnover of the futures and covered warrants today.

For the stocks, the play continues on commodities and agricultural products with some broker upgrades on them. In Singapore, Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood are the few that comes into mind. In Malaysia, stick to plantation stocks, IOI Corp and KLK are the 2 faves that come into mind.

Just keep in mind the MSCI changes if you are looking for trading ideas too.

Where Does The Markets Go From Here?

Good question. .... there continues to be a sense of cautiousness in the market and there has been a wide divergence between institutional stocks vs those from the retail. Funds continue to just focus on a bunch of blue chips and ignoring most other stocks and one can see that the penny and non-fave stocks continue to go on a downchannel.
Currently, the easiest way for intra-day traders to play this game is to play the momentum game and focus on stocks which are news-related or else buying stocks with good fundamentals and where they are widely followed by institutions.

2 things stand out today, Wilmar , a timely call which had a nice run on back of call by CLSA, as MSCI changes were announced. The main theme has been resource play( commodities and metals)
1)CLSA initiated Wilmar with an Outperform although, they have been pretty positive on the call. Target Price (WIL SP - S$4.08)
NB: Newly merged agri-business giant Wilmar is the sixth largest company listed on the Singapore Exchange

2) MSCI has announced changes to it indices this morning confirming a number of the changes as it moves from its Standard indices to Global investable indices. Just on Sing alone.. email me if u do want HK.

What is in:
*** SINGAPORE ***
New additions announced today (not previously known to the market):
Yanlord Land
Genting International

Addition names previously announced but confirmed for entry:
Wilmar International

New deletions announced today (not previously known to the market):
CHARTERED SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV

Deletion names previously announced but confirmed :
HAW PAR CORP
SMRT CORP
SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO
WING TAI HOLDINGS
SINGAPORE POST


This is the first of a 2-step move from the Standard indices to the Enhancedindices, which is based on a new methodology for selecting constituents. Thefirst stage wil be implemented on Nov 30 and the second stage will beimplemented at the end of May. As such additions will be added at 50% of theirexpected final weight and moved up to full weight by the end of May 2008 anddeletions will be fully removed from the index on that date also. So one can expect institutional funds to make changes and program teams are going to be busy while the hedgies may just decide to buy/sell ahead. Take your pick.

Where Does The Markets Go From Here? Wish I Knew

Had a phone call asking for a view on the markets now that the stock indexes regionally had gone up after the rate cut by the Fed. The Fed did excatly what the markets were hoping for and the market investors have 'rewarded' the cut by pushing up stocks. The old adage has of a Buy on expectations and then taking profits when the news comes out seems to fit this scenerio.

The latest focus is now on subprime problems (Northern Rock) in London , Bank of England about turn guaranteeing all bank deposits in Britain , as well as the higher oil prices, courtesy of weaker US dollar from Fed cut. One thing for certain is that credit problems will continue and the rate cuts are just temporary stop gag measures to soothe the confidence of everyone. It will be interesting to note that Gold price continue to ride up higher again and gold has always been viewed as a traditional hedge against inflation. The market is likely to use them as an excuse to sell the stocks again, would stay long still on the Oil and Marine stock although expect range trading by day traders and hedge funds. The Yen continues to firm and ebb to the USD but my general thinking is it is likely to be overall continual uptick...what a snail compared to the Euros.

On the home front, there is a higher interest with lots of TV and Print ads advertising training courses on currency trading and it is likely to continue to grow. No surprise given that currency trading is another option for the retail investor when the stock market is in the doldrums. Note that this is not new, it used and is still being done so by the high net worth individuals and corporates but there is now a wider reach with even the auntie and uncles and university students signing up for the courses. Certainly, if one is invested in Euros and short USD, you will be adding on to your net wealth even if you are not making as much as you like on the equity side. A note of caution, there is always a trend for the small investor to margin up their accounts and hence suffering losses when the positions go against them.

Met up with some friends yesterday and today and both times, these friends were speaking of how tired or stressed they have been facing daily volatility in the stock markets amidst the background of subprime problems and Yen as well as expectations interest rate cuts in US. So far, none of them seem willing to walk away from their job, one mentioned that they are not ready for retirement although would like to if they have the sufficient funds to take the risk.

Anyway, this prompted me to write up an article on it. The reason for this, do we want to be tied to our current jobs daily for a monthly salary or is it better to just to take life easy, trade at home and make some extra income on the internet. Below is just an excerpt

Want to make easy money online? Be an Affiliate Marketer.
Affiliate Marketing is the method of promoting merchants businesses in which an affiliate is rewarded for every visitor’s sale provided through their efforts. This includes internet affiliate marketing programs.

Anybody, even a newbie can start up by being an affiliate. You can start it out as part time while you are holding on to a full time job and gradually focussing more efforts as it becomes more and more profitable.

How to do it?

1. Find a hot market (examples-: Weight-loss, golf, pets, health care, E-Commerce).
2. Find an affiliate product and register with them.
3. Choose your affiliate merchants carefully as you need to ensure that they have backups for you as an affiliate such as startup manuals and regular follow up on creative news to you as an affiliate for you to put on your website as an example
4. Once you have chosen your affiliate merchants, the next step is create your landing page on your website
5. Promote your affiliate links.
6. When a visitor clicks on your link and visits the merchant website and decide to buy.
7. You get commission.

There, easy money right? it is your Mindset and Self-motivation that will determine the keys to life success. How much time do you wish to have for your family, your life, your health and time for yourself. ...... just remember not too make too many lunches a week.. its bad for the waistline although watching these stressed up friends is a self motivation too.

StockWatchCommentary

After all the MSCI rebalancing last week...the focus will be in HK where the market will focus on HSI rebalance which will see HSBC and China Mobile weighting reduced by about 3.23ppt and 4.94ppt by the close of this Friday. Will be interesting to see how the rest of Asia namely Singapore and Malaysia react to HK.
It is still China that remains the most interesting with the big market potential as well as the wealth growth there. ...only it probably has to run through the gamut of recalls on safety standards set by their 'corporate-buyers' who ordered them. Hey, I dont think we should blame China entirely given that these 'corporate-buyers' were motivated by profits when they ordered their made-in-China OEMs, I had to agree that the design of the products which were given to the Chinese OEMs did not specify the excat standards of safety. Still, these news will only ensure that Chinese Govt will work towards upping their safety standards as the clock continues to ticktock forwards towards the Olympics next year.
One thing for sure, there are lots of broker reccomendations these week compared to 3 weeks ago where most were staying clear until it gets less cloudy. Certainly 80% more reccommendations of buys and switches and lesser calls to sell in their strategy reviews on the markets. At UOBKH, an analyst based on technicals, is adopting a sell into strength strategy via SGX.
Here is an interesting news article to read ->WSJ Investors Hope This September

Article :8 Tested and Successful Ways to Get Traffic

This is my latest article which I plan to submit to a couple of article directories. Appreciate any comments there. See below

The goal of any Online Business is to generate Income. To generate Income, we need to generate Traffic. Without traffic, nothing happens on the website. Most websites usually use a mix of paid as well as free ways.
Here are 8 Tested and Successful Ways to Get Traffic
1. Publish Newsletters - You can write a weekly or monthly newsletter, or get help in obtaining free articles from other web site owners who want to advertise their site. Although writing your own work is highly recommended, as it increases your credibility.
2. Join Online Communities and Contribute to Forums - You can share your knowledge and expertise with many online communities as well as your web site. This is the closest to free advertising when you go to forums that have the same subject or niche as your site while showing how knowledgeable you are.
3. Get Incoming Links to Your Site - Many webmasters are willing to exchange links with one you so that they could produce more public awareness about their own sites which is good for your targeted traffic. Make sure links are related to what your business is about.
4. Write and Submit Articles - There are many online Article directories. When your article gets published on their site, it can gets picked up by their subscribers and those surfing the web. These articles include a resource box at the end of your article which provides a back-link to your website. So make sure when you are writing about yourself to include information about yourself and your website.
5. Make sure that Your Web Site Has Good Content - When you write good content for your site, this attracts Search Engines who track the keywords and keyword phrases and directs traffic to your website.
6. Traffic Exchange – Traffic Exchanges are the viewing of one another’s site or page. Traffic Swarm is one such exchange that has earned a good reputation.
7. Blog – Start a blog and regularly updating it with good relevant useful information will encourage visitors to come often to your website. It also builds trust as your reader gets to 'know' you are reliable as you are consistent in what you are saying too. Putting in some Adsense Ads on your posting each time also helps you earn some extra clicks to your income pocket.
8. Press Release – Write a short introduction on yourself or your website, giving an idea of what you are doing and sending to the press editors. Most newspapers usually have a column for new business start ups.