Monday, November 12, 2007

Stock Market Wants Another US Rate Cut

The stock markets want another US rate cut and it seems until this comes about, there is some freefall going there with some weak rebounds although for now, it is not holding up well. Calling Ben Bernake...

Amazing, Bloomberg is always reporting bullish things despite negative news and presenting them positively. A $45 Billion Writedown Won't Stop Wall Street Profit

Big move on the Yen has caused unwinding of carry trades, resulting in AUD/NZD and the other currencies to go into freefall. Last time we had that move, the it touched a low of 1.02 to the USD. Worth watching today. News headlines all 'screaming' of new 10 yr highs on Yen strengthening to the USD while the Tokyo stock prices plunged to their lowest levels this year, reflecting fears over how the rising yen could damage the country's exports.

If you are paid in USD, you effectively have taken a paycut vs the other currencies if you are not based in USD. My apologies if I unintentionally hurt anybody with this remark.

Crude oil took a breather today, it dropped as much as 2.9% . OPEC says considering increasing production...at that prices why not. Its winter season.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $27, or 3.2 % to $807.70/ ounce on the NY Comex
Speculative long positions in gold futures still outnumbered short positions by 202,125 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Nov. 6, CFTC data showed on Nov. 9. Net-long positions rose by 3,519 contracts, or 1.8 percent, from a week earlier.

Speculative long positions in oil futures on the Nymex outnumbered short positions by 105,816 contracts. Net-long positions rose by 22,696 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier. Net-long positions reached a record 127,491 on July 31.

In Singapore National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said in Parliament yesterday 'There is no need and there is no intention for us to take any further action,' soothing sounds for the property market especially property stocks in singapore which had some freefall as well as price target cuts by brokers these 2 weeks.

The STI all time high a month ago excatly was 3,875 , its now lost 364 points or just under 10% . Chinese stocks and blues had a big tumble yesterday. Govt release saying that Singapore inflation may hit 5% in early 2008 is not good

Interesting article in Barron's Nov 5 issue carried the results of its latest Big Money poll of fund managers,. Some of the findings are: 22 %thought Wall Street (with the Dow at 13,595) was overvalued, 23% undervalued and 55% fairly valued. overall, 42% of respondents said they are still bullish on stocks. However, this figure was down from the 64 % of a year ago.

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