Stock Market Wants Another US Rate Cut

The stock markets want another US rate cut and it seems until this comes about, there is some freefall going there with some weak rebounds although for now, it is not holding up well. Calling Ben Bernake...

Amazing, Bloomberg is always reporting bullish things despite negative news and presenting them positively. A $45 Billion Writedown Won't Stop Wall Street Profit

Big move on the Yen has caused unwinding of carry trades, resulting in AUD/NZD and the other currencies to go into freefall. Last time we had that move, the it touched a low of 1.02 to the USD. Worth watching today. News headlines all 'screaming' of new 10 yr highs on Yen strengthening to the USD while the Tokyo stock prices plunged to their lowest levels this year, reflecting fears over how the rising yen could damage the country's exports.

If you are paid in USD, you effectively have taken a paycut vs the other currencies if you are not based in USD. My apologies if I unintentionally hurt anybody with this remark.

Crude oil took a breather today, it dropped as much as 2.9% . OPEC says considering increasing production...at that prices why not. Its winter season.

Gold futures for December delivery fell $27, or 3.2 % to $807.70/ ounce on the NY Comex
Speculative long positions in gold futures still outnumbered short positions by 202,125 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Nov. 6, CFTC data showed on Nov. 9. Net-long positions rose by 3,519 contracts, or 1.8 percent, from a week earlier.

Speculative long positions in oil futures on the Nymex outnumbered short positions by 105,816 contracts. Net-long positions rose by 22,696 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier. Net-long positions reached a record 127,491 on July 31.

In Singapore National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said in Parliament yesterday 'There is no need and there is no intention for us to take any further action,' soothing sounds for the property market especially property stocks in singapore which had some freefall as well as price target cuts by brokers these 2 weeks.

The STI all time high a month ago excatly was 3,875 , its now lost 364 points or just under 10% . Chinese stocks and blues had a big tumble yesterday. Govt release saying that Singapore inflation may hit 5% in early 2008 is not good

Interesting article in Barron's Nov 5 issue carried the results of its latest Big Money poll of fund managers,. Some of the findings are: 22 %thought Wall Street (with the Dow at 13,595) was overvalued, 23% undervalued and 55% fairly valued. overall, 42% of respondents said they are still bullish on stocks. However, this figure was down from the 64 % of a year ago.

StockWatchCommentary

I guess the markets finally came off when they woke up to the fact that stocks are overpriced and the street finally wakes up to the subprime effects . Its not going to be a Merry Christmas for United States given the fact that there is a loss of jobs, fallout from losses for the broking firms on the banks as the bonuses could impact the staff and caution on the markets may just curb spending this year. US Consumer confidence fell, according to the University ofMichigan with the October figure hitting 75 (Expectations was 80); the 2nd lowest reading since 1992. Of course, we will prob see some excesses by the 'ultra-rich' but the general public will curb some form of spending. Most expectations point to slow down in US next year and stockbrokers, economists and all hope for Asia to decouple from US and China to help lead the way except..China is still relatively expensive despite its growth potential.

Is the Chinese market finally going to slow down as China made its 9th attempt at curbing the excesses by raising the reserve requirements with the RRR at 13.5%.... .things will prob slowdown a bit and funds are now in the last leg of the year with lots of program trades rebalancing their portfolio .
China reportings that its Trade Surplus has climbed to a record $27.05 billion is not going to get US very happy with them as its been preceived that Yuan is undervalued .

Am expecting a month end push and a Christmas Rally? watch out for the signs and dont forget the MSCI rebalancing impact on some of the stocks in /out of the index.

The falls in the market almost tempted me to want to take a dip back into the stocks. I do have some stocks in mind to accumulate and will wait for them to come down to my levels. I just have to share this tip “Four Golden Mantras to Trading Success” ©® (Andy Sng of Assetia Asset Management)

Have a “REASON” for being in the markets…
Get into the market for that “REASON”.
Monitor and continuously challenge the “REASON” for being in the market.
Get out when the “REASON” is no longer valid.

Love Gold, Like Yen...grrr at the slowness, Like AUD(staying Long in Aud and Euros) , Holding Sing$ and if u like to short HSI.. at your levels please. I have yet to learn how to Short stuff yet really...

Check out Yen article link by bloomberg which may see some reduction in carry trades.
Yen Rises to 1 1/2-Year High Against Dollar on Risk Reduction