Monday, November 12, 2007
Stock Market Wants Another US Rate Cut
Amazing, Bloomberg is always reporting bullish things despite negative news and presenting them positively. A $45 Billion Writedown Won't Stop Wall Street Profit
Big move on the Yen has caused unwinding of carry trades, resulting in AUD/NZD and the other currencies to go into freefall. Last time we had that move, the it touched a low of 1.02 to the USD. Worth watching today. News headlines all 'screaming' of new 10 yr highs on Yen strengthening to the USD while the Tokyo stock prices plunged to their lowest levels this year, reflecting fears over how the rising yen could damage the country's exports.
If you are paid in USD, you effectively have taken a paycut vs the other currencies if you are not based in USD. My apologies if I unintentionally hurt anybody with this remark.
Crude oil took a breather today, it dropped as much as 2.9% . OPEC says considering increasing production...at that prices why not. Its winter season.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $27, or 3.2 % to $807.70/ ounce on the NY Comex
Speculative long positions in gold futures still outnumbered short positions by 202,125 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Nov. 6, CFTC data showed on Nov. 9. Net-long positions rose by 3,519 contracts, or 1.8 percent, from a week earlier.
Speculative long positions in oil futures on the Nymex outnumbered short positions by 105,816 contracts. Net-long positions rose by 22,696 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier. Net-long positions reached a record 127,491 on July 31.
In Singapore National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said in Parliament yesterday 'There is no need and there is no intention for us to take any further action,' soothing sounds for the property market especially property stocks in singapore which had some freefall as well as price target cuts by brokers these 2 weeks.
The STI all time high a month ago excatly was 3,875 , its now lost 364 points or just under 10% . Chinese stocks and blues had a big tumble yesterday. Govt release saying that Singapore inflation may hit 5% in early 2008 is not good
Interesting article in Barron's Nov 5 issue carried the results of its latest Big Money poll of fund managers,. Some of the findings are: 22 %thought Wall Street (with the Dow at 13,595) was overvalued, 23% undervalued and 55% fairly valued. overall, 42% of respondents said they are still bullish on stocks. However, this figure was down from the 64 % of a year ago.
StockWatchCommentary
Is the Chinese market finally going to slow down as China made its 9th attempt at curbing the excesses by raising the reserve requirements with the RRR at 13.5%.... .things will prob slowdown a bit and funds are now in the last leg of the year with lots of program trades rebalancing their portfolio .
China reportings that its Trade Surplus has climbed to a record $27.05 billion is not going to get US very happy with them as its been preceived that Yuan is undervalued .
Am expecting a month end push and a Christmas Rally? watch out for the signs and dont forget the MSCI rebalancing impact on some of the stocks in /out of the index.
The falls in the market almost tempted me to want to take a dip back into the stocks. I do have some stocks in mind to accumulate and will wait for them to come down to my levels. I just have to share this tip “Four Golden Mantras to Trading Success” ©® (Andy Sng of Assetia Asset Management)
Have a “REASON” for being in the markets…
Get into the market for that “REASON”.
Monitor and continuously challenge the “REASON” for being in the market.
Get out when the “REASON” is no longer valid.
Love Gold, Like Yen...grrr at the slowness, Like AUD(staying Long in Aud and Euros) , Holding Sing$ and if u like to short HSI.. at your levels please. I have yet to learn how to Short stuff yet really...
Check out Yen article link by bloomberg which may see some reduction in carry trades.
Yen Rises to 1 1/2-Year High Against Dollar on Risk Reduction
Friday, November 9, 2007
Bulls vs the Bears
I will not be catching falling knives too soon as yet and it does not make sense to be holding a position over the weekend.
Chinese stocks are the most pricey currently trading in the above 40 PEs, with HK China shares following and one can expect further 'weakness' there with some selling expected on that area although, the wealth and liquidity of chinese funds cannot be discounted.
Are investors in self-denial of the fundamentals. Just think , higher oil prices = more pricey products. Cost of living has to go up as its now more expensive to transport supplies and goods now. Subprime problems in US mean loss of jobs and borrowers may have to find ways to pay off their housing loans, which means that they will have to cut their other expenditures and the continued announcement of job losses at banks on the mortgage departments will mean that there is a bunch of people out there looking for jobs. Its a definite slowdown expected next year .
Personally, I like a newsclip article on Wednesday with Gisele Bundchen saying that she will accept all currencies except the USD as payment for modelling jobs. It just says it but somehow, US /Fed in a Hobson's choice of just keeps cutting rates which means US$ will continue to remain weak
The bad news:
Oil recouped early losses to resume its march towards the US$100
The strengthening of the Yen again, may see some unwinding of carry trades, also perceived bad for Japanese stocks as it makes exports more expensive
Jitters have grown since Citigroup Inc said on Sunday that it needed to take an additional US$8 billion to US$11 billion in writedowns. Note that ML had just earlier reported a US$8.4billion loss writedown for 3Q07
General Motors Corp on an accounting adjustment, had a a record loss
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
A$ is in the spotline today
Weak USD, Strong Gold Price which is getting closer to US$900, Oil hits new high and local oil pumps here has raised their cost of petrol to the consumer yesterday. Markets around still continue to have a live of its own despite all the signs of cautiousness. Track the volatility of the Hang Seng Index and the high turnover of the futures and covered warrants today.
For the stocks, the play continues on commodities and agricultural products with some broker upgrades on them. In Singapore, Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood are the few that comes into mind. In Malaysia, stick to plantation stocks, IOI Corp and KLK are the 2 faves that come into mind.
Just keep in mind the MSCI changes if you are looking for trading ideas too.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Where Does The Markets Go From Here?
Currently, the easiest way for intra-day traders to play this game is to play the momentum game and focus on stocks which are news-related or else buying stocks with good fundamentals and where they are widely followed by institutions.
2 things stand out today, Wilmar , a timely call which had a nice run on back of call by CLSA, as MSCI changes were announced. The main theme has been resource play( commodities and metals)
1)CLSA initiated Wilmar with an Outperform although, they have been pretty positive on the call. Target Price (WIL SP - S$4.08)
NB: Newly merged agri-business giant Wilmar is the sixth largest company listed on the Singapore Exchange
2) MSCI has announced changes to it indices this morning confirming a number of the changes as it moves from its Standard indices to Global investable indices. Just on Sing alone.. email me if u do want HK.
What is in:
*** SINGAPORE ***
New additions announced today (not previously known to the market):
Yanlord Land
Genting International
Addition names previously announced but confirmed for entry:
Wilmar International
New deletions announced today (not previously known to the market):
CHARTERED SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV
Deletion names previously announced but confirmed :
HAW PAR CORP
SMRT CORP
SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO
WING TAI HOLDINGS
SINGAPORE POST
This is the first of a 2-step move from the Standard indices to the Enhancedindices, which is based on a new methodology for selecting constituents. Thefirst stage wil be implemented on Nov 30 and the second stage will beimplemented at the end of May. As such additions will be added at 50% of theirexpected final weight and moved up to full weight by the end of May 2008 anddeletions will be fully removed from the index on that date also. So one can expect institutional funds to make changes and program teams are going to be busy while the hedgies may just decide to buy/sell ahead. Take your pick.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Where Does The Markets Go From Here? Wish I Knew
The latest focus is now on subprime problems (Northern Rock) in London , Bank of England about turn guaranteeing all bank deposits in Britain , as well as the higher oil prices, courtesy of weaker US dollar from Fed cut. One thing for certain is that credit problems will continue and the rate cuts are just temporary stop gag measures to soothe the confidence of everyone. It will be interesting to note that Gold price continue to ride up higher again and gold has always been viewed as a traditional hedge against inflation. The market is likely to use them as an excuse to sell the stocks again, would stay long still on the Oil and Marine stock although expect range trading by day traders and hedge funds. The Yen continues to firm and ebb to the USD but my general thinking is it is likely to be overall continual uptick...what a snail compared to the Euros.
On the home front, there is a higher interest with lots of TV and Print ads advertising training courses on currency trading and it is likely to continue to grow. No surprise given that currency trading is another option for the retail investor when the stock market is in the doldrums. Note that this is not new, it used and is still being done so by the high net worth individuals and corporates but there is now a wider reach with even the auntie and uncles and university students signing up for the courses. Certainly, if one is invested in Euros and short USD, you will be adding on to your net wealth even if you are not making as much as you like on the equity side. A note of caution, there is always a trend for the small investor to margin up their accounts and hence suffering losses when the positions go against them.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Anyway, this prompted me to write up an article on it. The reason for this, do we want to be tied to our current jobs daily for a monthly salary or is it better to just to take life easy, trade at home and make some extra income on the internet. Below is just an excerpt
Want to make easy money online? Be an Affiliate Marketer.
Affiliate Marketing is the method of promoting merchants businesses in which an affiliate is rewarded for every visitor’s sale provided through their efforts. This includes internet affiliate marketing programs.
Anybody, even a newbie can start up by being an affiliate. You can start it out as part time while you are holding on to a full time job and gradually focussing more efforts as it becomes more and more profitable.
How to do it?
- Find a hot market (examples-: Weight-loss, golf, pets, health care, E-Commerce).
- Find an affiliate product and register with them.
- Choose your affiliate merchants carefully as you need to ensure that they have backups for you as an affiliate such as startup manuals and regular follow up on creative news to you as an affiliate for you to put on your website as an example
- Once you have chosen your affiliate merchants, the next step is create your landing page on your website
- Promote your affiliate links.
- When a visitor clicks on your link and visits the merchant website and decide to buy.
- You get commission.
There, easy money right? it is your Mindset and Self-motivation that will determine the keys to life success. How much time do you wish to have for your family, your life, your health and time for yourself. ...... just remember not too make too many lunches a week.. its bad for the waistline although watching these stressed up friends is a self motivation too.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
StockWatchCommentary
It is still China that remains the most interesting with the big market potential as well as the wealth growth there. ...only it probably has to run through the gamut of recalls on safety standards set by their 'corporate-buyers' who ordered them. Hey, I dont think we should blame China entirely given that these 'corporate-buyers' were motivated by profits when they ordered their made-in-China OEMs, I had to agree that the design of the products which were given to the Chinese OEMs did not specify the excat standards of safety. Still, these news will only ensure that Chinese Govt will work towards upping their safety standards as the clock continues to ticktock forwards towards the Olympics next year.
One thing for sure, there are lots of broker reccomendations these week compared to 3 weeks ago where most were staying clear until it gets less cloudy. Certainly 80% more reccommendations of buys and switches and lesser calls to sell in their strategy reviews on the markets. At UOBKH, an analyst based on technicals, is adopting a sell into strength strategy via SGX.
Here is an interesting news article to read ->WSJ Investors Hope This September
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Article :8 Tested and Successful Ways to Get Traffic
The goal of any Online Business is to generate Income. To generate Income, we need to generate Traffic. Without traffic, nothing happens on the website. Most websites usually use a mix of paid as well as free ways.
Here are 8 Tested and Successful Ways to Get Traffic
1. Publish Newsletters - You can write a weekly or monthly newsletter, or get help in obtaining free articles from other web site owners who want to advertise their site. Although writing your own work is highly recommended, as it increases your credibility.
2. Join Online Communities and Contribute to Forums - You can share your knowledge and expertise with many online communities as well as your web site. This is the closest to free advertising when you go to forums that have the same subject or niche as your site while showing how knowledgeable you are.
3. Get Incoming Links to Your Site - Many webmasters are willing to exchange links with one you so that they could produce more public awareness about their own sites which is good for your targeted traffic. Make sure links are related to what your business is about.
4. Write and Submit Articles - There are many online Article directories. When your article gets published on their site, it can gets picked up by their subscribers and those surfing the web. These articles include a resource box at the end of your article which provides a back-link to your website. So make sure when you are writing about yourself to include information about yourself and your website.
5. Make sure that Your Web Site Has Good Content - When you write good content for your site, this attracts Search Engines who track the keywords and keyword phrases and directs traffic to your website.
6. Traffic Exchange – Traffic Exchanges are the viewing of one another’s site or page. Traffic Swarm is one such exchange that has earned a good reputation.
7. Blog – Start a blog and regularly updating it with good relevant useful information will encourage visitors to come often to your website. It also builds trust as your reader gets to 'know' you are reliable as you are consistent in what you are saying too. Putting in some Adsense Ads on your posting each time also helps you earn some extra clicks to your income pocket.
8. Press Release – Write a short introduction on yourself or your website, giving an idea of what you are doing and sending to the press editors. Most newspapers usually have a column for new business start ups.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
What a farce, BOA is paid to invest in Countrywide.
OK, I am green-eyed and I am clearly not Warren Buffet. But read this article on Bank of American deal its 'saving' in Countrywide is clearly in the favor of BOA of course.
Brewing the Perfect Storm
I expect the ABCS market to remain tight as investors shun risk from asset backed commercial papers. Billions of ABCP may need to be rolled over in the next few days or weeks. This jitter could spill over to other assets if sustained .
This means that the short term credit market (and borrowing costs) will remain nervous, prompting central banks to continue injecting liquidity to tamper this burden (and encourage confidence). However, sustained injections and FED cuts (if any) will lead to stabilization of the markets but the price of inflation will have to be paid down the road. Also, the injection may find its way to provide more easy credit to areas not intended for.
What is worrisome is the perceived certainty of central bank intervention that encourages unwarranted risk-taking. Not too long ago, investors will not bat an eye to take on additional risk in order to earn a mere 20 basis or so more. Today, borrowers are crying at having to pay 80 basis more and still not attracting investors. What about paying a “reasonable” price for risk-taking, like 300 basis or 500 basis more? No, scream loud enough (“or be too big to fail”) and FED will come to the rescue. Stocks markets had hardly given up its gain this year when the world “swoon”, and looked to FED for action. It seems that central banks have become “Guardians of asset prices” or “Asset reflators” of the new world .
This reminds me of childhood times when “Daddy” always have more money no matter how we spend them. So spare the rod and spoil the child – we are brewing a perfect storm
Monday, August 27, 2007
Your Mindset and Online Automated Income
Your Mindset is one of the key ingredients to success, you should focus and organize your time and efforts on it. You can consciously be making an effort to learn all you know on online business but subconsciously, sabotaging yourself by not making a physical effort to start it.
Success requires conscious efforts, it needs your
1) time and effort
2) Your commitment
3) You have to make a conscious decision that failure is not an option
4) Do not be impatient, be conscientious and patiently learn.
There may be some who thinks that it is not easy to start up given that they lack the neccessary computer skills, or they do not seem to find enough time...well, they are excuses as it can be learned or via use of aids.
Take Ewen Chia, who is the acknowledged 'World's No 1 Super Affiliate' , he started out not knowing much about the internet world but he persisted for 5 years on the internet after his daily work hours from 9pm to 3pm before he finally suceeded. With his knowledge has come his desire to share and help out those who are continuing to come out into the market. He has some products which can cut down the learning process as well as help 'instant start ups'. If Ewen can succeed, then follow his footsteps. I am. Anyway, the system which I am also currently using, is Ewen's plug-play turnkey money-machine , I find that Ewen is very generous with his information given in it and I was able to follow the instructions to set up the system. So too is the technical support staff who are very helpful.
Friday, August 24, 2007
$ StockWatch $ Happy Quiet Friday
Buffett who runs Berkshire Hathaway Inc., clearly prefers financial companies which account for some 40 percent of the value of Berkshire's stock holdings
So far, stocks have made some recovery after the slide, The liqudity is coming back to the system as central banks pumping $ there and prices of stks have made some recovery while the Yen which was strong last week weakened. Fed and the rest of central banks certainly have helped the financial system bear out this subprime issue and preventing a financial disaster although we can expect the effects to be felt on the US economy. While market rallied these last couple of days on hopes of Fed cut, expect profit taking from day traders, uncertainty on next bad news but it seems market may just have enough fats from the good years to weather this rough patch.
Next week would continue to see rebalancing trades and futures expiry which would add to volatility of the indices and blue chips.
Current news as follow- French banking giant BNP Paribas said on Thursday it plans to unblock three of its investment funds, whose suspension earlier in the month sparked turmoil on global stock
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Equity Opportunities hedge fund rose 12 percent last week after the securities firm shored up the money-losing pool with $3 billion of cash, investors said.
- Singapore's DBS Group confirms today that it has more direct exposure to CDOs than previously declared. This came after broker CLSA said in a report that DBS may have S$2.4 billion ($1.6billion) worth of CDO holdings -- nearly double the S$1.3 billion directexposure it initially declared via a special purpose vehicle that had commercial paper backed by S$1.1 billion worthof CDOs. (that is what you get when you use keep them off the balance sheet, its hard to keep tabs)
- News flagging the banks affirming exposure to the subprime today, Bank of China price came off on back of its disclosure on its exposures.
Monday, August 20, 2007
BLOGs make $$$$ too
This ebook is probably the shortest, yet very useful self-help guide to making money blogging and opens up previous thoughts of just blogging for fun. It applies to who doesn’t have a website or his own product. It’s simply a fast track to affiliate profits too.
It is so simple that anyone can do it. Everything is written in a nice step by step format for you to follow. Below are just a few things that you will learn.
- Simple technique that you do not need to be an expert
- Create your Blog in 5 minutes or less
- Which free software to help you succeed
- Learn the secret to quick search engine traffic
- How to start making money today without a product or website of your own
- How to get search engine traffic to your blogs in under 10 days
- Search Engine Optimatisation tips
- Getting people to read what you are blogging about.
With dedication and time put towards
check out the ebook 'Blogging to the Bank’
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Secrets to Internet Marketing Instant Riches -Hype or Truth
Why the high interest?
- It offers an opportunity for the man in the street or anyone to build an online business
- Its at your own time as the Net is open 24/7 so you fit your business hours around your family schedule or main work commitments.
- Make that extra money to help buy something neccesarry, or pay for piano lessons, or education, or even a family vacation while you are still keeping on to your current job.
- Everybody knows something about something. Identify it and then write about it.
- Most IMPORTANTLY -> its yours, the actualisation of your own efforts.
Anybody can do internet marketing, all you need is a computer or a laptop, so why not make money from it? to get freewebsitebuilder
Money Talks - or is it no money talks today
There is also big unwinding going on with forced selling on the equities. The yen has advanced
..against all 16 most-active currencies this week -> last look again today 116.50 to the USD, as traders exited so-called carry trades. A$ and NZ$ taking a big hit.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Money Talks - summary of subprime contagion
This year is the year of big changes in finance all around from tight markets, liquidity and staff musical chairs and shortage. Its been 2 good years of corn so far and there is a lot of fats built up that had helped fuelled the markets until the subprime concerns stopped the stock market moves.
What is happening now is -> the retail man in the street is losing money as subprime 'meltdown' continue to build up. Liquidity will continue to tighten although the question continues to remain on how much more to go... The meltdown so far is not as 'severe' given the market uptick in the last 2 years and investors still have some 'fat' from there.
Given market uncertainty, one would stand clear for now and just unwind fat positions and switch around stocks which is going on.
Funds managers must be looking through their portfolios on which stocks to clear and hold as fund redemptions will continue given that those with subprime 'failures' are unable to take out their investments given the losses.
On the currency front, the increased risk aversion among global investors as well as capital recall means investors are winding down "carry trades," a reason why Yen had not been doing well until recently. Interestingly NZ$, a favorite of the carry trade as its interest rate is 7.75% higher than Japan's, has slid the most among the 16 major currencies in the past week, falling 3.5% against the yen while the A$ has dropped 2.1%. The Yen is standing at 117.39 to the USD.
A summary of liquidity pumped in by central banks so far has shown that it has hit all markets and not just US.
US:
Bear Sterns (US$1.3bn losses estimated) - Triggered the decline in June after two of its hedge funds faltered as subprime loans default rates. The company pledged US$1.3bn to help stem losses in the funds. They filed for bankruptcy protection on July 31. Investors were blocked from pulling money from a third fund as losses in the credit markets expanded
American Home Mortgage Investment -Margin calls forced the mortgage lender into bankruptcy protection on Aug. 6
Australia:
Basis Capital :have seen its Basis Yield Fund lose half its value. .
Absolute Capital Group Ltd: Suspended withdrawals and froze its Yield Strategies Fund and Yield Strategies Fund NZD, which together have about A$200m (US$177m) under management.
Macquarie Fortress Investments Ltd- The 3rd fund manager in Australia because of loans made against the funds, which have about US$1.3bn invested, they could lose a quarter of their value (or US$300m)
Taiwan Life Insurance Co.- would book a loss of TWD428m (US$13m) for the first half 2007
France-BNP Paribas Asset-management arm freezes three of its asset-backed security funds amid a lack of liquidity with some US$2.2bn losses estimated
Germany -IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG German bank has "felt the impact" of the subprime fallout and now on the receiving end of a bailout that consists of about €3.5bn, or US$4.789bn, to cover possible losses, plus a further financial backstop of €14.6bn to keep afloat IKB and the affiliate that invested in fixed-income securities. An estimated US$5bn losses.
China's 6-listed banks may lose an estimated 4.9bn yuan (US$646m) from their investment in subprime loans
1) Bank of China US$507.8m 2) China Construction Bank US$76m 3)Industrial & Commercial Bank of China US$15.8m 4) Bank of Communications US$33.2m 5) China Merchants Bank Co US$13.6m 6)China Citic Bank US$2.5m
Funds injected by central banks last week
US Federal Reserve Central -> has injected approx US$62m (Thursday: US$24bn / Friday: US$38bn )
European Central Bank -> Funds injected US$279bn (Thursday: US$130bn /Friday: US$84bn /Monday: US$65bn )
Bank of Canada injected on Friday: US$1.6bn
Bank of Japan -> injected US$13.5bn Funds (Friday: US$8.4bn /Monday: US$5.1bn )
Swiss National Bank injected on Friday: Est. US$1.7-2.5bn
Reserve Bank of Australia injected on Friday: US$4.2bn
Monetary Authority of Singapore believed to have injected on Friday: US$1bn