The stock markets want another US rate cut and it seems until this comes about, there is some freefall going there with some weak rebounds although for now, it is not holding up well. Calling Ben Bernake...
Amazing, Bloomberg is always reporting bullish things despite negative news and presenting them positively. A $45 Billion Writedown Won't Stop Wall Street Profit
Big move on the Yen has caused unwinding of carry trades, resulting in AUD/NZD and the other currencies to go into freefall. Last time we had that move, the it touched a low of 1.02 to the USD. Worth watching today. News headlines all 'screaming' of new 10 yr highs on Yen strengthening to the USD while the Tokyo stock prices plunged to their lowest levels this year, reflecting fears over how the rising yen could damage the country's exports.
If you are paid in USD, you effectively have taken a paycut vs the other currencies if you are not based in USD. My apologies if I unintentionally hurt anybody with this remark.
Crude oil took a breather today, it dropped as much as 2.9% . OPEC says considering increasing production...at that prices why not. Its winter season.
Gold futures for December delivery fell $27, or 3.2 % to $807.70/ ounce on the NY Comex
Speculative long positions in gold futures still outnumbered short positions by 202,125 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Nov. 6, CFTC data showed on Nov. 9. Net-long positions rose by 3,519 contracts, or 1.8 percent, from a week earlier.
Speculative long positions in oil futures on the Nymex outnumbered short positions by 105,816 contracts. Net-long positions rose by 22,696 contracts, or 27 percent, from a week earlier. Net-long positions reached a record 127,491 on July 31.
In Singapore National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said in Parliament yesterday 'There is no need and there is no intention for us to take any further action,' soothing sounds for the property market especially property stocks in singapore which had some freefall as well as price target cuts by brokers these 2 weeks.
The STI all time high a month ago excatly was 3,875 , its now lost 364 points or just under 10% . Chinese stocks and blues had a big tumble yesterday. Govt release saying that Singapore inflation may hit 5% in early 2008 is not good
Interesting article in Barron's Nov 5 issue carried the results of its latest Big Money poll of fund managers,. Some of the findings are: 22 %thought Wall Street (with the Dow at 13,595) was overvalued, 23% undervalued and 55% fairly valued. overall, 42% of respondents said they are still bullish on stocks. However, this figure was down from the 64 % of a year ago.
Monday, November 12, 2007
StockWatchCommentary
I guess the markets finally came off when they woke up to the fact that stocks are overpriced and the street finally wakes up to the subprime effects . Its not going to be a Merry Christmas for United States given the fact that there is a loss of jobs, fallout from losses for the broking firms on the banks as the bonuses could impact the staff and caution on the markets may just curb spending this year. US Consumer confidence fell, according to the University ofMichigan with the October figure hitting 75 (Expectations was 80); the 2nd lowest reading since 1992. Of course, we will prob see some excesses by the 'ultra-rich' but the general public will curb some form of spending. Most expectations point to slow down in US next year and stockbrokers, economists and all hope for Asia to decouple from US and China to help lead the way except..China is still relatively expensive despite its growth potential.
Is the Chinese market finally going to slow down as China made its 9th attempt at curbing the excesses by raising the reserve requirements with the RRR at 13.5%.... .things will prob slowdown a bit and funds are now in the last leg of the year with lots of program trades rebalancing their portfolio .
China reportings that its Trade Surplus has climbed to a record $27.05 billion is not going to get US very happy with them as its been preceived that Yuan is undervalued .
Am expecting a month end push and a Christmas Rally? watch out for the signs and dont forget the MSCI rebalancing impact on some of the stocks in /out of the index.
The falls in the market almost tempted me to want to take a dip back into the stocks. I do have some stocks in mind to accumulate and will wait for them to come down to my levels. I just have to share this tip “Four Golden Mantras to Trading Success” ©® (Andy Sng of Assetia Asset Management)
Have a “REASON” for being in the markets…
Get into the market for that “REASON”.
Monitor and continuously challenge the “REASON” for being in the market.
Get out when the “REASON” is no longer valid.
Love Gold, Like Yen...grrr at the slowness, Like AUD(staying Long in Aud and Euros) , Holding Sing$ and if u like to short HSI.. at your levels please. I have yet to learn how to Short stuff yet really...
Check out Yen article link by bloomberg which may see some reduction in carry trades.
Yen Rises to 1 1/2-Year High Against Dollar on Risk Reduction
Is the Chinese market finally going to slow down as China made its 9th attempt at curbing the excesses by raising the reserve requirements with the RRR at 13.5%.... .things will prob slowdown a bit and funds are now in the last leg of the year with lots of program trades rebalancing their portfolio .
China reportings that its Trade Surplus has climbed to a record $27.05 billion is not going to get US very happy with them as its been preceived that Yuan is undervalued .
Am expecting a month end push and a Christmas Rally? watch out for the signs and dont forget the MSCI rebalancing impact on some of the stocks in /out of the index.
The falls in the market almost tempted me to want to take a dip back into the stocks. I do have some stocks in mind to accumulate and will wait for them to come down to my levels. I just have to share this tip “Four Golden Mantras to Trading Success” ©® (Andy Sng of Assetia Asset Management)
Have a “REASON” for being in the markets…
Get into the market for that “REASON”.
Monitor and continuously challenge the “REASON” for being in the market.
Get out when the “REASON” is no longer valid.
Love Gold, Like Yen...grrr at the slowness, Like AUD(staying Long in Aud and Euros) , Holding Sing$ and if u like to short HSI.. at your levels please. I have yet to learn how to Short stuff yet really...
Check out Yen article link by bloomberg which may see some reduction in carry trades.
Yen Rises to 1 1/2-Year High Against Dollar on Risk Reduction
Friday, November 9, 2007
Bulls vs the Bears
So its the Bulls vs the Bears again. For the bullish, these guys are buying commodities , gold, and oil related stocks. For the Bears, well, I think they are just sitting there and saying to themselves that 'We will watch and see how it reacts after all, the markets always come back within 2 weeks or so".
I will not be catching falling knives too soon as yet and it does not make sense to be holding a position over the weekend.
Chinese stocks are the most pricey currently trading in the above 40 PEs, with HK China shares following and one can expect further 'weakness' there with some selling expected on that area although, the wealth and liquidity of chinese funds cannot be discounted.
Are investors in self-denial of the fundamentals. Just think , higher oil prices = more pricey products. Cost of living has to go up as its now more expensive to transport supplies and goods now. Subprime problems in US mean loss of jobs and borrowers may have to find ways to pay off their housing loans, which means that they will have to cut their other expenditures and the continued announcement of job losses at banks on the mortgage departments will mean that there is a bunch of people out there looking for jobs. Its a definite slowdown expected next year .
Personally, I like a newsclip article on Wednesday with Gisele Bundchen saying that she will accept all currencies except the USD as payment for modelling jobs. It just says it but somehow, US /Fed in a Hobson's choice of just keeps cutting rates which means US$ will continue to remain weak
The bad news:
Oil recouped early losses to resume its march towards the US$100
The strengthening of the Yen again, may see some unwinding of carry trades, also perceived bad for Japanese stocks as it makes exports more expensive
Jitters have grown since Citigroup Inc said on Sunday that it needed to take an additional US$8 billion to US$11 billion in writedowns. Note that ML had just earlier reported a US$8.4billion loss writedown for 3Q07
General Motors Corp on an accounting adjustment, had a a record loss
I will not be catching falling knives too soon as yet and it does not make sense to be holding a position over the weekend.
Chinese stocks are the most pricey currently trading in the above 40 PEs, with HK China shares following and one can expect further 'weakness' there with some selling expected on that area although, the wealth and liquidity of chinese funds cannot be discounted.
Are investors in self-denial of the fundamentals. Just think , higher oil prices = more pricey products. Cost of living has to go up as its now more expensive to transport supplies and goods now. Subprime problems in US mean loss of jobs and borrowers may have to find ways to pay off their housing loans, which means that they will have to cut their other expenditures and the continued announcement of job losses at banks on the mortgage departments will mean that there is a bunch of people out there looking for jobs. Its a definite slowdown expected next year .
Personally, I like a newsclip article on Wednesday with Gisele Bundchen saying that she will accept all currencies except the USD as payment for modelling jobs. It just says it but somehow, US /Fed in a Hobson's choice of just keeps cutting rates which means US$ will continue to remain weak
The bad news:
Oil recouped early losses to resume its march towards the US$100
The strengthening of the Yen again, may see some unwinding of carry trades, also perceived bad for Japanese stocks as it makes exports more expensive
Jitters have grown since Citigroup Inc said on Sunday that it needed to take an additional US$8 billion to US$11 billion in writedowns. Note that ML had just earlier reported a US$8.4billion loss writedown for 3Q07
General Motors Corp on an accounting adjustment, had a a record loss
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
A$ is in the spotline today
A$ again in the spotlight as RBA lift rates an additional 25bps (as expected) to 6.75% followed with hawkish commentary. The markets are not ruling out a further hike in December. A$ has firmed up some 100 bps today on back of the rate hike.
Weak USD, Strong Gold Price which is getting closer to US$900, Oil hits new high and local oil pumps here has raised their cost of petrol to the consumer yesterday. Markets around still continue to have a live of its own despite all the signs of cautiousness. Track the volatility of the Hang Seng Index and the high turnover of the futures and covered warrants today.
For the stocks, the play continues on commodities and agricultural products with some broker upgrades on them. In Singapore, Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood are the few that comes into mind. In Malaysia, stick to plantation stocks, IOI Corp and KLK are the 2 faves that come into mind.
Just keep in mind the MSCI changes if you are looking for trading ideas too.
Weak USD, Strong Gold Price which is getting closer to US$900, Oil hits new high and local oil pumps here has raised their cost of petrol to the consumer yesterday. Markets around still continue to have a live of its own despite all the signs of cautiousness. Track the volatility of the Hang Seng Index and the high turnover of the futures and covered warrants today.
For the stocks, the play continues on commodities and agricultural products with some broker upgrades on them. In Singapore, Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood are the few that comes into mind. In Malaysia, stick to plantation stocks, IOI Corp and KLK are the 2 faves that come into mind.
Just keep in mind the MSCI changes if you are looking for trading ideas too.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Where Does The Markets Go From Here?
Good question. .... there continues to be a sense of cautiousness in the market and there has been a wide divergence between institutional stocks vs those from the retail. Funds continue to just focus on a bunch of blue chips and ignoring most other stocks and one can see that the penny and non-fave stocks continue to go on a downchannel.
Currently, the easiest way for intra-day traders to play this game is to play the momentum game and focus on stocks which are news-related or else buying stocks with good fundamentals and where they are widely followed by institutions.
2 things stand out today, Wilmar , a timely call which had a nice run on back of call by CLSA, as MSCI changes were announced. The main theme has been resource play( commodities and metals)
1)CLSA initiated Wilmar with an Outperform although, they have been pretty positive on the call. Target Price (WIL SP - S$4.08)
NB: Newly merged agri-business giant Wilmar is the sixth largest company listed on the Singapore Exchange
2) MSCI has announced changes to it indices this morning confirming a number of the changes as it moves from its Standard indices to Global investable indices. Just on Sing alone.. email me if u do want HK.
What is in:
*** SINGAPORE ***
New additions announced today (not previously known to the market):
Yanlord Land
Genting International
Addition names previously announced but confirmed for entry:
Wilmar International
New deletions announced today (not previously known to the market):
CHARTERED SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV
Deletion names previously announced but confirmed :
HAW PAR CORP
SMRT CORP
SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO
WING TAI HOLDINGS
SINGAPORE POST
This is the first of a 2-step move from the Standard indices to the Enhancedindices, which is based on a new methodology for selecting constituents. Thefirst stage wil be implemented on Nov 30 and the second stage will beimplemented at the end of May. As such additions will be added at 50% of theirexpected final weight and moved up to full weight by the end of May 2008 anddeletions will be fully removed from the index on that date also. So one can expect institutional funds to make changes and program teams are going to be busy while the hedgies may just decide to buy/sell ahead. Take your pick.
Currently, the easiest way for intra-day traders to play this game is to play the momentum game and focus on stocks which are news-related or else buying stocks with good fundamentals and where they are widely followed by institutions.
2 things stand out today, Wilmar , a timely call which had a nice run on back of call by CLSA, as MSCI changes were announced. The main theme has been resource play( commodities and metals)
1)CLSA initiated Wilmar with an Outperform although, they have been pretty positive on the call. Target Price (WIL SP - S$4.08)
NB: Newly merged agri-business giant Wilmar is the sixth largest company listed on the Singapore Exchange
2) MSCI has announced changes to it indices this morning confirming a number of the changes as it moves from its Standard indices to Global investable indices. Just on Sing alone.. email me if u do want HK.
What is in:
*** SINGAPORE ***
New additions announced today (not previously known to the market):
Yanlord Land
Genting International
Addition names previously announced but confirmed for entry:
Wilmar International
New deletions announced today (not previously known to the market):
CHARTERED SEMICONDUCTOR
SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV
Deletion names previously announced but confirmed :
HAW PAR CORP
SMRT CORP
SINGAPORE PETROLEUM CO
WING TAI HOLDINGS
SINGAPORE POST
This is the first of a 2-step move from the Standard indices to the Enhancedindices, which is based on a new methodology for selecting constituents. Thefirst stage wil be implemented on Nov 30 and the second stage will beimplemented at the end of May. As such additions will be added at 50% of theirexpected final weight and moved up to full weight by the end of May 2008 anddeletions will be fully removed from the index on that date also. So one can expect institutional funds to make changes and program teams are going to be busy while the hedgies may just decide to buy/sell ahead. Take your pick.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Where Does The Markets Go From Here? Wish I Knew
Had a phone call asking for a view on the markets now that the stock indexes regionally had gone up after the rate cut by the Fed. The Fed did excatly what the markets were hoping for and the market investors have 'rewarded' the cut by pushing up stocks. The old adage has of a Buy on expectations and then taking profits when the news comes out seems to fit this scenerio.
The latest focus is now on subprime problems (Northern Rock) in London , Bank of England about turn guaranteeing all bank deposits in Britain , as well as the higher oil prices, courtesy of weaker US dollar from Fed cut. One thing for certain is that credit problems will continue and the rate cuts are just temporary stop gag measures to soothe the confidence of everyone. It will be interesting to note that Gold price continue to ride up higher again and gold has always been viewed as a traditional hedge against inflation. The market is likely to use them as an excuse to sell the stocks again, would stay long still on the Oil and Marine stock although expect range trading by day traders and hedge funds. The Yen continues to firm and ebb to the USD but my general thinking is it is likely to be overall continual uptick...what a snail compared to the Euros.
On the home front, there is a higher interest with lots of TV and Print ads advertising training courses on currency trading and it is likely to continue to grow. No surprise given that currency trading is another option for the retail investor when the stock market is in the doldrums. Note that this is not new, it used and is still being done so by the high net worth individuals and corporates but there is now a wider reach with even the auntie and uncles and university students signing up for the courses. Certainly, if one is invested in Euros and short USD, you will be adding on to your net wealth even if you are not making as much as you like on the equity side. A note of caution, there is always a trend for the small investor to margin up their accounts and hence suffering losses when the positions go against them.
The latest focus is now on subprime problems (Northern Rock) in London , Bank of England about turn guaranteeing all bank deposits in Britain , as well as the higher oil prices, courtesy of weaker US dollar from Fed cut. One thing for certain is that credit problems will continue and the rate cuts are just temporary stop gag measures to soothe the confidence of everyone. It will be interesting to note that Gold price continue to ride up higher again and gold has always been viewed as a traditional hedge against inflation. The market is likely to use them as an excuse to sell the stocks again, would stay long still on the Oil and Marine stock although expect range trading by day traders and hedge funds. The Yen continues to firm and ebb to the USD but my general thinking is it is likely to be overall continual uptick...what a snail compared to the Euros.
On the home front, there is a higher interest with lots of TV and Print ads advertising training courses on currency trading and it is likely to continue to grow. No surprise given that currency trading is another option for the retail investor when the stock market is in the doldrums. Note that this is not new, it used and is still being done so by the high net worth individuals and corporates but there is now a wider reach with even the auntie and uncles and university students signing up for the courses. Certainly, if one is invested in Euros and short USD, you will be adding on to your net wealth even if you are not making as much as you like on the equity side. A note of caution, there is always a trend for the small investor to margin up their accounts and hence suffering losses when the positions go against them.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Met up with some friends yesterday and today and both times, these friends were speaking of how tired or stressed they have been facing daily volatility in the stock markets amidst the background of subprime problems and Yen as well as expectations interest rate cuts in US. So far, none of them seem willing to walk away from their job, one mentioned that they are not ready for retirement although would like to if they have the sufficient funds to take the risk.
Anyway, this prompted me to write up an article on it. The reason for this, do we want to be tied to our current jobs daily for a monthly salary or is it better to just to take life easy, trade at home and make some extra income on the internet. Below is just an excerpt
Want to make easy money online? Be an Affiliate Marketer.
Affiliate Marketing is the method of promoting merchants businesses in which an affiliate is rewarded for every visitor’s sale provided through their efforts. This includes internet affiliate marketing programs.
Anybody, even a newbie can start up by being an affiliate. You can start it out as part time while you are holding on to a full time job and gradually focussing more efforts as it becomes more and more profitable.
Anyway, this prompted me to write up an article on it. The reason for this, do we want to be tied to our current jobs daily for a monthly salary or is it better to just to take life easy, trade at home and make some extra income on the internet. Below is just an excerpt
Want to make easy money online? Be an Affiliate Marketer.
Affiliate Marketing is the method of promoting merchants businesses in which an affiliate is rewarded for every visitor’s sale provided through their efforts. This includes internet affiliate marketing programs.
Anybody, even a newbie can start up by being an affiliate. You can start it out as part time while you are holding on to a full time job and gradually focussing more efforts as it becomes more and more profitable.
How to do it?
- Find a hot market (examples-: Weight-loss, golf, pets, health care, E-Commerce).
- Find an affiliate product and register with them.
- Choose your affiliate merchants carefully as you need to ensure that they have backups for you as an affiliate such as startup manuals and regular follow up on creative news to you as an affiliate for you to put on your website as an example
- Once you have chosen your affiliate merchants, the next step is create your landing page on your website
- Promote your affiliate links.
- When a visitor clicks on your link and visits the merchant website and decide to buy.
- You get commission.
There, easy money right? it is your Mindset and Self-motivation that will determine the keys to life success. How much time do you wish to have for your family, your life, your health and time for yourself. ...... just remember not too make too many lunches a week.. its bad for the waistline although watching these stressed up friends is a self motivation too.
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